Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Who the Cavaliers should be worried about

Through 42 games played, the Cavaliers have a 2.5 game lead over the Celtics for the top record in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, the No. 1 seed in the conference for the playoffs is something all teams would like to have. With that in mind, here's a look at the East's top four teams.


1. Cleveland Cavaliers
31-11 overall, 14-3 home, 17-8 road, 17-6 against East, 100.9 ppg, 94.5 points allowed per game, 7-3 last 10.
The good: LeBron James is having a career year, shooting better than ever in all categories, posting his career-high in assists per game and is scoring nearly 30 points per game. Among the league leaders in every major defensive statistical category. Relatively healthy right now, minus Jamario Moon. Eleven of the next 13 games are at home. Possibility of a major trade (Antawn Jamison, Kevin Martin, Troy Murphy?) looms.
The bad: Mo Williams in midst of horrible shooting slump. Shaq's involvement in offense remains up and down, changing from game to game. Delonte West is playing well right now, but the possibility of another breakdown is always there. Execution on the offensive end late in close games, particularly against inferior teams, remains questionable a lot of the time.
Notable wins: at Magic, at Heat, vs. Mavericks, sweep of Suns, sweep of Blazers, vs. Hawks, at Hawks, at Lakers, vs. Rockets
Notable losses: vs. Celtics, vs. Bobcats, at Bobcats, at Mavericks (playing without Dirk Nowitzki), at Jazz, vs. Bulls
Outlook: Barring any major injury or other extreme circumstance, the Cavs are only going to improve and I see no reason why they can't be the top seed in the East. Some good wins against good teams, but also some tough losses, including two to the Bobcats, hurt their case a little bit. But the Cavs play the big boys of the NBA well, and a key game against the Lakers looms on Thursday. They also have to travel to Boston and still have to host the Magic. Also, don't discount a major trade happening in the next two-three weeks, possibly for Antawn Jamison, or Kevin Martin of the Kings.


2. Boston Celtics
27-12 overall (2.5 games back), 11-7 home, 16-5 road, 19-7 against East, 100.2 ppg, 93.8 points allowed per game, 4-6 last 10.
The good: Rajon Rando is morphing into one of the NBA's top young point guards, averaging nearly 14 points and 10 assists per game. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are having All-Star seasons, as usual, despite Pierce's scoring (18 ppg) being down this season. One of the best defensive team in the league, first in points allowed per game and in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage. Despite injuries to key players (Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace), still No. 2 seed in the East and the 16-5 road record is impressive. Won 14 of 15 at one point early in the season.
The bad: Losing at home. For one of the top teams in the NBA, seven losses at home, in mid-January, is inexcusable. In each of the last two years, the Celtics have lost six games at home during the regular season. The Bucks, a non-playoff team, as of right now, are 11-7 at home. Injuries have played a major role this season, most notably Garnett, who has only played in 29 games and is averaging just 15 points and 9 rebounds per game. Rasheed Wallace has missed time, but should be back this week. Also, Marquis Daniels, a key reserve, has battled injuries all season.
Notable wins: at Cavs, vs. Jazz, at Heat, at Spurs, at Grizzlies, at Magic, at Heat, at Raptors.
Notable losses: vs. Hawks, at Pacers, vs. Magic, swept by Suns, at Clippers, at Warriors, at Hawks, vs. Mavericks
Outlook: Aside from the bad home record and the injuries, the Celtics are still are formidable team, and as a Cavs fan, the team I am most fearful of seeing in the playoffs, right now. Once all of the principles are healthy, plus any possible deadline trades, the wins will start coming and that home record will probably get better. It is interesting to see whether or not Kevin Garnett has much left in the tank. But Ray Allen and Paul Pierce seemingly never drop off. Rondo may be the key to this team. If he continues to get better and his shooting keeps improving, this is still a scary team.


3. Atlanta Hawks
26-14 overall (4 games back), 16-5 home, 10-9 road, 15-10 against East, 102.8 ppg, 97.4 points allowed per game, 5-5 last 10.
The good: Scoring and lots of it. This team has more young, athletic talent than any "good" team in the NBA wit, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Jeff Teague. Throw in veterans like Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby, and you have the makings of a high-flying, high-octane team that beat anyone on any given night. Smith is one of the most explosive players in the league, offensively and defensively with his ability to block shots. Johnson is one of the best all-around players in the league and is a 20 point scorer. They have beaten the Celtics three times this season. Jamal Crawford is a scoring machine coming off the bench and his buzzer beater to defeat the Suns earlier this month was incredible. Also, the Hawks only commit 12.2 turnovers per game, a league-low. Impressive.
The bad: Despite the star power in the starting lineup, there isn't much depth here. Joe Smith does come off the bench, but aside from Horford, there really isn't any other presence under the basket. Yes, they have beaten the Celtics three times, but they also lost to the Cavs on back-to-back nights in December. They only give up 97 points a game, but defensive breakdowns tend to happen. Allow teams to shoot 46 percent from the field, which is in the bottom half of the league rankings.
Notable wins: Celtics (three times), vs. Blazers, vs. Heat, vs. Rockets, at Mavericks, at Raptors, vs. Jazz, vs. Suns.
Notable losses: at Lakers, at Bobcats, vs. Magic, at Magic, at Pistons, vs. Knicks (twice), at Denver, at Miami, vs. Cavs (twice, back-to-back days), at Heat.
Outlook: This is an explosive team, and like I mentioned before, can beat any team on any night. Just look at that list above. Some impressive wins there, especially the three over the Celtics. However, they are 0-4 against the Cavs and Celtics. Assuming they maintain their level of play, this is a team capable of winning definitely one, and maybe two playoff series. And they could add pieces, like when they added Mike Bibby on the trade deadline. Their lack of a frontcourt does concern me and this is why the Cavs (Shaq, Z) and the Magic (Dwight Howard) present such a matchup problem.


4. Orlando Magic
26-15 overall (4.5 games back), 14-4 home, 12-11 road, 17-9 against East, 101 ppg, 96.5 points allowed per game, 3-7 last 10.
The good: A 17-4 start propeled them to where they are. Dwight Howard is a force, obviously, averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds per game with a shooting percentage of 60.5. Their 14-4 record at home is impressive. J.J. Redick had some great games in place of Vince Carter when he was injured. They lead the NBA with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. They are incredibly deep, with Mickael Pietrus, Jason Williams, Ryan Anderson, Redick, Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass all being solid role players to go along with Howard, Carter, Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis.
The bad: Where do I begin? They have lost six of eight games. They are 9-10 since that aforementioned 17-4 start and are 8-9 against teams at .500 or better. What a disappointment, although I must say that I predicted this after they let Hedo Turkoglu sign with Toronto and traded away rising star Courtney Lee for Vince Carter, who can dunk and that's about it. Carter's presence has negatively affected Rashard Lewis in a significant way, as Lewis is scoring just 14.4 points per game this year, down from 17.7 last year. He is also getting two less shot attempts per game, another direct result of Carter. He is also playing just 32.5 minutes per game, another direct result of Carter. Lewis has only hit the 20-point mark twice since December 16. Get the picture? Injuries to Carter and Nelson have hurt the team's chemistry and continuity.
Notable wins: at Raptors (twice), vs. Suns, at Celtics, at Hawks, vs. Blazers, vs. Jazz, vs. Rockets, vs. Hawks.
Notable losses: vs. Cavs, vs. Heat, at Jazz, at Suns, vs. Celtics, at Heat, at Nuggets, at Lakers, at Blazers, at Bulls, at Wizards.
Outlook: Not good at all. Don't be surprised if the Magic slide into the fifth, sixth, or seventh spot in the East as the teams behind them (Raptors, Bobcats, Heat) could all pass them. Count on Carter and Nelson to miss more time with injuries, as both have always been injury prone. Lewis' impact needs to become greater, he (along with the shooting of Turkoglu and the play of Dwight Howard) was the a main factor in their run to the NBA Finals last year. Sitting around and watching Vince Carter dunk is not going to get them past the Cavs, Celtics or Hawks in the East. Stan Van Gundy has his work cut out for him as to restoring Lewis to his form of recent years. This team can still cause problems and if they start clicking on all cylinders could get dangerous, fast. But I am not expecting that to happen. I am thinking they get to to the playoffs, maybe with home court advantage, maybe not, and are one-and-done.
Others
Bobcats (fifth), Heat (sixth), Raptors (seventh) and Bulls (eight) are the other four teams currently in the East's top eight.
- The Bobcats are young, athletic, hungry and have beaten the Cavs twice this season.  They are a team to watch and also could make a move near the trade deadline. Gerald Wallace is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Larry Brown has these guys believing they can win.
- The Heat are always a factor to be a dangerous team as Dwyane Wade is putting up MVP-caliber numbers again. Michael Beasley is starting to show real flashes. But having Jermaine O'Neal down low hurts them. There is a severe lack of talent surrounding Wade and they will hover around .500 all season.
- The Raptors (in Cleveland tonight) are also a team to watch, don't be shocked to see them rise up the standings as we get into February. They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA. Hedo Turkoglu is having a huge impact and Chris Bosh presents the same matchup problems as Dwight Howard. The guy to watch here is Andrea Bargnani, the former No. 1 overall pick who can make a difference inside and can hit the 3-pointer. With him and Bosh on the floor, the Raptors play huge and I believe they are the biggest team in the NBA.
- The Bulls are a fringe-playoff team and the Bucks are breathing down their necks. Joakim Noah is having a good season and Derrick Rose is starting to come around after a terrible start.

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