Monday, January 4, 2010

Taking a look at the NBA Plus/Minus stat

One of the "newer" stats being used in NBA box scores is the +/- (plus/minus) statistic. It's a very useful tool at identifying which players make the biggest differences when they are on the court.
It also has a big impact regarding the Cavaliers, which I explain below.
Here's a more detailed explanation that describes what it is and what it means:

The stat tells the net point differential when a player is in or out of the game. In other words, plus-minus measures how much one particular team outscores or is outscored by an opponent when any given player is on the court. It can also be used to determine how teams perform with various player combinations on the court. But, in this post, I will concentrate on just the individual player numbers, not groups of players.


For example: Shaquille O'Neal's  +/- from Sunday night's loss to the Bobcats was +6. What does that mean? When Shaq was on the court, the Cavs outscored the Bobcats by six points.
Zyrdunas Ilgauskas' +/- was -11. What does that mean? When Z was on the court, the Cavs were OUTSCORED by 11 points.
What does that tell us? That when Shaq was on the court, the Cavs were much more effective. The formula is as simple as that, in most cases.

In the example above, I highlited just one game. This statistic will fluctuate from game to game. Z had a +11 in the win over the Nets earlier this week. If you go back and look at the Cavs' box scores this season, you'll notice these numbers, for each player, fluctuate from high in the positives to low in the negatives.

Now, let's look league-wide. Kobe Bryant leads the league with a +313 in 33 games (+9.48 per game). That one is pretty obvious...one could make the argument that Kobe is the best player in the league on the best team in the league (yes, you could also argue  LeBron is the best player on the best team,).
Ron Artest, also of the Lakers, is second in the NBA with a +306 net points.

Third? Anderson Varejao. Andy has a +301 in 34 games, which is a +8.85 per game. That is very good, and very telling. That stat alone shows just how crucial Andy has been to the Cavaliers this season. When he has been on the court this season, the Cavaliers have outscored their opposition by 301 points. That is unreal. In the Cavaliers' 102-87 win over the Lakers on Christmas day, Andy posted a +20. Also unreal. This ties in directly with Mike Brown's decision to play Andy off the bench (one of the reasons, in order to pair with Z, who he is good chemistry with) and start J.J. Hickson. Also, Andy is almost-always on the court in clutch situations, which makes his strong +/- even more impressive.  The Cavaliers are starting to rely on his rebounding, energy, defense (specifically his pick-and-roll defense) and even his ability to score to win them games.

Yes, his 3-pointer he hit late in the game against the Hawks on Dec. 30th was probably a fluke ... after all, it was his first career 3-point make. But the point is that he is a crucial component in the recipe for the Cavaliers' success.  After that win over the Nets last Saturday, LeBron was quoted as saying "I'm amazed [Andy] is able to keep up that level of play." Pretty high praise, coming from the league MVP. Against the Nets, Andy posted a +14. LeBron wasn't too shabby either with a +10.

Here is a link to a piece written by Chris Sheridan of ESPN.com about this exact topic, regarding Andy and the +/-

Here is a link to the NBA.com leaderboard for the +/- stat

So, the next time you watch a Cavs game (or any NBA game), pay attention to who is effective on the court, then go to the box score after the game and look at the +/- stat. The guys who you noticed did the best job will have good +/- numbers. After all, numbers don't lie. For the Cavs to have a chance to get to the Finals this season, Andy needs to continue to make a difference. Again ... numbers don't lie.

* Photo courtesy of Joshua Gunter | The Plain Dealer

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