Here's the NBA conference standings (through Wednesday's games)
* If the season ended today, the Cavaliers would get the No. 1 seed in the East and the top seed overall, meaning they'd get home court advantage in every playoff series, including the Finals, against any team. Continuing with this current scenario, the Cavs would matchup with the No. 8 seed Raptors in the first round. The Raptors are two games in front of the Bulls for that final East playoff spot, and are two games back of the Bobcats for the No. 7 spot.
Odds are the Raptors stay in the 8th spot, as they aren't playing that well (5-5 in last 10)...good news for them is that the team chasing, the Bulls (4-6 last 10), are playing even worse.
As I said in my previous post on this subject, I think the Raptors are the ideal first-round playoff matchup for the Cavs, despite their considerable size. Especially if the other choice is the Bobcats, who are scary athletic and play defense. My reason for this rationale? The Raptors are a horrid defensive team, allowing 105.3 points per game. Want some perspective? Let's compare:
Raptors: 105.3 points allowed per game, last in East
Warriors: 112.5 points allowed per game, last in West and last in NBA
Cavaliers: 94.8 fourth in East, 6th in NBA
Bobcats: 93.6 points per game, 1st in East and 1st in NBA
* The other side of that is the Raptors can score, as they average 105.3 points per game. They are also third in the league in 3-point shooting. With that being said, I still like the Cavs in a seven-game series. The majority of the time, especially in the first round of the playoffs, better defensive teams win. Of course there are exceptions (recall the Golden State Warriors' playoff run in the 2006-07 season; defense was a rumor on that team but they could outscore anyone easily).
* So let's assume the Cavs get past the Raptors, I'd guess in five games. The second-round matchup would be with either No. 4 seed Boston or No. 5 seed Milwaukee.
Both are intriguing matchups for the Cavs, for good and bad reasons.
Let's start with the Bucks.
The Cavs won three of the teams' four meetings, as the Bucks got a win when the Cavs were minus LeBron James. In two of the three Cavs' wins, the Bucks were right there until the end, including Tuesday's game, which the Cavs may have won thanks to an official-reviewed call. Milwaukee is a deep, talented team that boasts playoff veterans (Jerry Stackhouse, Kurt Thomas), exciting young players (Brandon Jennings), good shooters (John Salmons) and the second-best center in the East (Andrew Bogut). I wouldn't be shocked if a Cavs-Bucks series went six, or even seven, games. I'd still give the overall series advantage to the Cavs, as the Bucks also struggle with defense at times and simply don't have the weapons and experience and knowledge the Cavs have. But they are close and are dangerous.
* As far as the Celtics...what more can be said? They are old and slow and are falling in the standings (they won't fall past the No. 4 seed in the East). The Cavs have blown out the Celtics twice in three meetings and play again on Sunday. The Celtics just don't strike fear into me like other teams, say the Magic, do. I don't think the Cavs would sweep the Celtics, but I don't see how Boston could compete with the Cavs in seven games, barring a complete meltdown by the Cavs or some unforseen injury or horrible slump by LeBron.
* The Cavs' magic number to clinch the top seed in the East and the top seed in the NBA is two games...there' been talk about resting the starters down the stretch. Without going into a lengthy analysis or discussion, I will say plain and simple: I am in favor of it, 100 percent. When those top seeds are clinched, rest the starters (LeBron, Jamison, Mo, and Shaq if he returns) in the fourth quarter, even the whole second half if necessary. I am a firm believer in having your top players rested, refreshed and injury-free heading into the playoffs. No question.
* Photo courtesy of Getty Images
No comments:
Post a Comment