If the playoffs started today...

If the NBA playoffs started today, here's what the first-round matchups would look like (through Saturday night's games):

EAST
No. 1 seed Cavaliers vs No. 8 seed Raptors
No. 4 seed Hawks vs. No. 5 seed Bucks
No. 2 seed Magic vs. No. 7 seed Heat
No. 3 seed Celtics vs. No. 6 seed Bobcats

* The Raptors are just a half game out of the No. 7 spot, and the Heat and Bobcats are tied for that No. 7 spot but the Bobcats hold the tiebreaker (better conference record). The Bucks, at No. 5, are two games ahead of the Bobcats.
* With these matchups, that means the Cavs would be facing a first-round matchup with the Raptors. I'd say that is pretty favorable. The Raptors have been on a downslide lately and don't play a lick of defense. I believe they boast the tallest starting lineup in the NBA, highlighted by 7-footers Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargniani (both of whom can shoot from almost anywhere on the court). The Cavs have beaten the Raptors in two out of three meetings so far (Toronto won in the season's second game). The teams play again on April 6.
* Shaquille O'Neal may or may not be back by the first round, although I am guessing he will. Whether he plays or not is a significant factor, as the Cavs will need his inside presence. With that being said, with or without him I like the Cavs to win that series in five games. As I said, the Raptors don't play defense. Hedo Turkoglu does scare me though (remember what he did to the Cavs last season in the playoffs).
* Assuming the Cavs beat the Raptors in this projected matchup, they'd get the Heat-Bucks series winner, leaving a potential matchup with Magic or Celtics for the East finals. This is the reason why that No. 1 seed is so important.
*Looking past today, if these standings stay similar over the next month, the Cavs could conceivably play any of the last four seeded teams (Bucks, Heat, Bobcats, Raptors). The Bucks are playing really well right now, so for the sake of this analysis let's assume they hang on to the No. 5 slot. That would leave the Heat, Bobcats and Raptors as potential first round matchups. I still think the Raptors represent the easiest matchup. The Bobcats own the Cavs this season, but in a seven-game series I give the Cavs the edge. The Heat are the X-factor to me. Some nights, they look like they could win the East. Other nights, they don't look like a playoff team. It will be interesting to see where they end up.
* As of today, the Bulls are two games back of the Raptors for that last playoff spot. I set the odds at 50-50 whether or not the Bulls can sneak in to the playoffs. That is also a matchup I like in the Cavs' favor, as the Bulls are young I don't see them presenting a huge problem for the Cavs in a seven-game series. They are very talented, though I am not sure they know "how to win" a playoff series against a veteran team like the Cavs.
* Looking at some of these other potential matchups, I think the Hawks at No. 4 would take out the Bucks. The No. 2 seed Magic could have some trouble with the Heat, but I like Orlando in seven games there. The interesting one is the potential Bobcats-Celtics matchup. The Celtics are old, slow and aren't playing well right now and I don't see a reason why they won't continue to falter. The Bobcats are young, athletic, explosive and have Michael Jordan playing H-O-R-S-E with them in practice. Potential first-round upset? You do the math.

WEST

No. 1 seed Lakers vs No. 8 seed Blazers

No. 4 seed Jazz vs. No. 5 seed Thunder

No. 2 seed Mavericks vs. No. 7 seed Spurs

No. 3 seed Nuggets vs. No. 6 seed Suns